July 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in July, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. All the broad indicators remained positive, with the general activity and new orders indexes improving this month. The survey’s price indexes suggest widespread increases for purchased inputs, and more firms reported price increases for their own manufactured goods. Expectations for the next six months continued to moderate but remain positive overall.

Current Indicators Reflect Continued Growth
The diffusion index for current general activity increased 6 points this month (see Chart 1). Over 44 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 19 percent reported decreases. The new orders index rebounded 14 points after falling 23 points in June. Nearly 46 percent of the firms reported an increase in orders, and 14 percent reported declines. The current shipments index, however, decreased 4 points. The firms reported, on balance, increases in unfilled orders and longer delivery times this month.

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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
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The Beige Book – July 2018

Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions By Federal Reserve District

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. The outliers were the Dallas District, which reported strong growth driven in part by the energy sector, and the St. Louis District where growth was described as slight. Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies. All Districts reported that labor markets were tight and many said that the inability to find workers constrained growth. Consumer spending was up in all Districts with particular strength in Dallas and Richmond. Contacts reported higher input prices and shrinking margins. Six Districts specifically mentioned trucking capacity as an issue and attributed it to a shortage of commercial drivers. Contacts in several Districts reported slow growth in existing home sales but were not overly concerned about rising interest rates. Commercial real estate was largely unchanged.

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Source: Federal Reserve
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