Categoria: Insights & Reports

Manufacturing sector expands at solid pace in August

By IHS Markit

China’s manufacturing sector continued to expand strongly in August, adding to signs of a further recovery in conditions after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus outbreak earlier in the year. Production and new orders both expanded at sharper rates than in July, while firms reported the first increase in export sales in 2020 to date. Firmer demand conditions led to a sustained increase in purchasing activity, although the rate of expansion eased slightly since July. Meanwhile, staffing levels fell at only a fractional, hinting that employment was close to stabilisation as firms registered a further increase in backlogs of work.

Prices data meanwhile indicated softer increases in both input costs and output charges compared to the previous month. The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index ™ (PMI ™ ) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – rose from 52.8 at the start of the third quarter to 53.1 in August. The reading was indicative of a solid overall improvement in the health of the sector, and one that was the most marked since January 2011. Helping to lift the headline PMI were steeper increases in both output and new orders in August.

Total new work expanded at the sharpest rate since the start of 2011 amid reports of firmer client demand as the domestic and global economy continued to recover from the pandemic. Notably, manufacturers registered the first increase in new export sales since December 2019. Higher new business led to a further expansion of output. The rate of growth also picked since July and was the most marked since January 2011. Manufacturing employment in China edged closer to stabilisation in August. Staff numbers fell at a fractional pace that was the slowest in the year to date. While some firms cut staff numbers to contain costs, others mentioned increasing their headcounts due to rising workloads. Furthermore, a combination of reduced staffing levels and rising sales drove a solid increase in outstanding business.

Por FGV

O Indicador de Incerteza da Economia (IIE-Br) da Fundação Getulio Vargas caiu 3,4 pontos em agosto de 2020, para 160,3 pontos. Mesmo após a quarta queda consecutiva, o indicador devolveu pouco mais da metade das altas ocorridas no bimestre março-abril.

“A incerteza continua caindo, mas de forma decrescente ao longo dos meses. Com isso, o IIE-Br ainda está mais de 20 pontos acima do recorde anterior à pandemia de Covid-19, de 136,8 pontos, em setembro de 2015. O resultado reflete o contexto ainda problemático da pandemia, os embates atuais relacionados às contas públicas e as dúvidas sobre o ritmo de recuperação da atividade econômica. Em agosto, pela primeira vez desde o início da pandemia, o componente de Expectativas, com peso de 20%, exerceu maior influência no resultado do IIE-Br. Apesar da evolução favorável no mês, este componente permanece acima dos 200 pontos, refletindo a dificuldade de se prever os rumos da economia no horizonte de 12 meses, devido, principalmente, aos impactos ainda desconhecidos da retirada gradual dos estímulos fiscais na recuperação da economia”, afirma Anna Carolina Gouveia, Economista da FGV IBRE.

Os dois componentes do Indicador de Incerteza caminharam na mesma direção em agosto. O componente de Mídia recuou 0,6 ponto, para 143,5 pontos, contribuindo negativamente em 0,5 ponto para a queda do índice geral no mês. Já o componente de Expectativas contribuiu negativamente em 2,9 pontos para o comportamento do IIE-Br, ao recuar 13,3 pontos, para 202,6 pontos. Apesar da queda na margem, este indicador devolveu até agora apenas 24% das altas entre março e maio.